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Tonnage Index Rises 3 Percent in January

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index climbed 3.0 percent in January 2009, marking only the second month-to-month increase in the last seven months. Is this the beginning of the end of the recession?

Who knows, but ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that there was no reason to get too excited over January’s figures. “Tonnage will not fall every month, and just because it rises every now and then doesn’t mean the economy is on the mend,” Costello said. “Furthermore, tonnage is contracting significantly on a year-over-year basis, which is highlighting the current weakness in the freight environment.”

Costello said that any sustained recovery in tonnage is still months away.
While the Index was up in January compared to December’s dismal performance, it was down 10.8 compared to January 2008.

Each month, ATA asks its membership the amount of tonnage each carrier hauled, including all types of freight. The indexes are calculated based on those responses. The sample includes an array of trucking companies, ranging from small fleets to multi-billion dollar carriers.

When a company in the sample fails, the ATA includes its final month of operation and zeros it out for the following month. This assumes the remaining carriers pick up that freight. As a result, it is close to a net wash and does not end up in a false increase. Nevertheless, some carriers are picking up freight from failures, and it may have boosted the index.

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 70 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 10.7 billion tons of freight in 2006. Motor carriers collected $645.6 billion, or 83.8 percent of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

Source: American Trucking Associations

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